In a new roundtable discussion with the New York Times Magazine, oncologist and bioethicist Zeke Emanuel of the Center For American Progress theorizes that the live music industry could be put on ice for quite a while.

Zeke – who is the brother of former Chicago Mayor/White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel – estimates that large gatherings like concerts and sporting events will be the “last to return” to American society, adding, “Realistically, we’re talking fall 2021 at the earliest.”

“Restarting the economy has to be done in stages, and it does have to start with more physical distancing at a work site that allows people who are at lower risk to come back,” Emmanuel explains at length. “Certain kinds of construction, or manufacturing or offices, in which you can maintain six-foot distances are more reasonable to start sooner. Larger gatherings — conferences, concerts, sporting events — when people say they’re going to reschedule this conference or graduation event for October 2020, I have no idea how they think that’s a plausible possibility. I think those things will be the last to return. Realistically, we’re talking fall 2021 at the earliest.”

For a full list of concerts and tours impacted by COVID-19 visit Relix.com/Coronavirus.